The peninsula effect is a biological diversity pattern found in peninsulas in which the number of species decreases toward the tip of the peninsula. The geometry hypothesis, as one proposed cause of the peninsula effect, attempts to predict this pattern by examining the peculiarities of peninsular geometry. As peninsulas are characterized by their isolated positions, it has been suggested that a decreased immigration-to-extinction rate is the cause of the decrease in species diversity from the base to the tip of a peninsula. We aimed to test the geometry hypothesis on tree species in the Florida peninsula by modeling the latitudinal abundance pattern using sample-based tree inventory data. We postulated that the current abundance distribution of a species is a ramification of past immigration–extinction dynamics in a peninsula, as well as an important indicator of such dynamics in the future. The latitudinal abundance patterns of 113 tree species in Florida in the southeastern United States were simulated with the Huisman–Olff–Fresco (HOF) model using the USDA Forest Service’s Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) database. Evidence species for the geometry hypothesis were then selected if the simulated latitudinal abundance pattern was asymmetric with its abundance maxima occurring within the Florida peninsula (i.e., approximately 31.5° latitude or lower). Our HOF model results found that most species (87% of 113 species) did not experience any steep abundance decline along the Florida peninsula when compared with their general trend across the range, suggesting that the observed diversity pattern of tree species in Florida could merely be a continuation of latitudinal diversity gradients in the southeastern United States, independent of peninsular geometry.